Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/0354Z from Region 2524 (N15W16). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 23/1948Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1720Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 932 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Mar, 25 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 087
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 005/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/20