Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 23/0911Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 698 km/s at 23/0915Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/0434Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7572 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 128
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 014/020-014/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
