Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (24 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
429 km/s at 23/2045Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1912Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/1838Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2379 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26
Mar).

III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 098
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05