Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 23/2039Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 23/1147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 23/1146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 277 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 077
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 078/075/072
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  010/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/20