- Status Report
- Feb 6, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 June 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 357 km/s at 23/1755Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 673 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 074
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 074/074/073
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 010/012-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/10