Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 357 km/s at 23/1755Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 673 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 074
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 074/074/073
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  010/012-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/10