Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1444Z from Region 2093 (S09W32). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jun,
25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at
22/2221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 160 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and
quiet levels on day three (26 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 093
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 007/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 010/015-013/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/15
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/05