Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
23/2056Z from Region 1778 (S16E61). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (26 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
773 km/s at 23/0632Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/0502Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0502Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11 pfu at
23/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1607 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun). Protons are
likely to cross threshold on day one (24 Jun), have a chance of crossing
threshold on day two (25 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (26 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 40/30/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 60/40/20
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 128
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 015/018-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/15