Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 23/1000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 232 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Jul, 26 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 070
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 007/008-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/15
Minor Storm 01/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/50/20