Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 22/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 254 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 067
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  014/020-014/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/45/30