Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 23/2039Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/1224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5776 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 071
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  018/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/10