Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jul,
25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
363 km/s at 22/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2036Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1914Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 099
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 100/105/115
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 006/005-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/15/15