Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
416 km/s at 22/2116Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2134Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0032Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1555 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (26 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 107
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 005/005-005/005-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/30