Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (24 Jan) and expected to be very low on days two and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solarwind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 23/0218Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/1125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6126 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 094
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 090/090/088
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 011/012-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/30
Minor Storm 15/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/30/40