Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 22/2314Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/2325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 071
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15