Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 22/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1184 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 084
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 085/082/080
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10