Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 599 km/s at 23/0811Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/0631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/0614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4118 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jan, 25 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 099
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 008/008-009/008-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/20/40