Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 23/0253Z from Region 2268 (S10E60). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 475 km/s at 23/1726Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/0743Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (25 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (26 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 121
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 125/125/135
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 007/008-015/008-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
