Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 23/0708Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/0544Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0509Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 451 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 096
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 006/005-005/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/20