Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 23/1825Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1971 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 068
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  009/010-011/014-018/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/50/65