- Status Report
- Jan 30, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 February 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/2053Z from Region 2638 (N18E20). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 650 km/s at 23/2048Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 23/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/1931Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 642 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 083
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 083/083/083
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 014/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/20