Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 23/0711Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6678 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 091
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 007/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/20