Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/0026Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at 23/2023Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23/1332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 23/1049Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 117
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
