Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 22/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 383 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 070
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10