Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 December 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/2220Z from Region 1633 (S05W27). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at
22/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 114
Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 23 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 004/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05