Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to . 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 23/0622Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 528 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Aug, 25 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 067
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 005/005-005/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 10/10/35
Major-severe storm 05/05/35