Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 22/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4038 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Aug, 25 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 070
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  007/008-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/50/35