Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 23/2052Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 23/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 23/1939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 293 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 081
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 011/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 013/012-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15