Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
23/1727Z from Region 2146 (N10W18). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug,
26 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at
22/2312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0505Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0601Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 457 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Aug, 25 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (26 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 132
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 006/005-006/005-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/15