Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 22/1653Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/2147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10633 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 068
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  020/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  018/024-013/016-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/30