Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 22/0547Z from Region 2595 (N08W0*). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 21/2320Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/0032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/0837Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1014 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Sep, 24 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 085
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 085/085/090
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  005/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20