Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 September 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (23 Sep, 24 Sep) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (25 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 707 km/s at 22/0715Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/0250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0601Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 782 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (23 Sep, 25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 30/25/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 107
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20