Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep,
25 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
504 km/s at 22/0035Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1508Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1559Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
22/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 178 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Sep,
24 Sep, 25 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 130
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 007/010-008/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/30
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/40