Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at
22/0226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2905 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Sep, 24 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (25 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 111
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 110/108/105
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 008/008-008/008-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05