Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 22/1856Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (24 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 066
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-014/020-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/40/45
Minor Storm 01/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/60/65