Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 22/0543Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/0408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2245Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 071
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 071/071/070
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  005/005-010/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/15
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/20