Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 22/1915Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/0711Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18601 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Oct) and active to major storm levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 078
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 075/072/072
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 018/024-027/040-032/044

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/45/45
Minor Storm 10/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/35/45