Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 22, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 22/0340Z from Region 2434 (S10W48). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 509 km/s at 21/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/1755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1413Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 806 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (24 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (25 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 121
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 006/005-009/012-019/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/40
Minor Storm 01/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/45/50

SpaceRef staff editor.