Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
22/1428Z from Region 2192 (S12E06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
607 km/s at 21/2101Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/1510Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0454Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11815 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Oct), unsettled to active
levels on day two (24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(25 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one
through three (23-25 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 95/95/95
Class X 55/55/55
Proton 35/40/45
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 216
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 215/220/220
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 014/015-012/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/25
