Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
22/2120Z from Region 1875 (N07E04). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct,
25 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at
22/1847Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1523Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2433 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (24 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 146
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 006/005-006/008-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/35