Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 22/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 702 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 078
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 078/080/082
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10