Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 22/0927Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 22/1049Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/2212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 22/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1002 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 088
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 090/092/094
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 019/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 015/018-008/010-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/30
Minor Storm 20/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/45