Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 430 km/s at 21/2100Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Nov, 24 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 069
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/25