Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 21/2118Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2742 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 073
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15