Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
22/0101Z from Region 2209 (S15W43). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24
Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
420 km/s at 22/1148Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/2033Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 22/1341Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 535 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Nov, 24 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (25 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 167
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 170/170/150
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 009/010-007/008-005/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/25/10
