Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
22/1445Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 351 km/s at
22/1920Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25
Nov).

III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 143
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10