Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 22/1431Z from Region 3017 (N14W14). There are currently 9 numbered IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 22/1807Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 952 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).

III. Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 165
Predicted 23 May-25 May 165/163/162
90 Day Mean 22 May 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 005/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15