Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 706 km/s at 22/0402Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 429 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 May, 25 May).

III. Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 097
Predicted 23 May-25 May 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 22 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 009/010-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/10