Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 611 km/s at 22/0332Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0705Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 May, 24 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 May).
III. Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 099
Predicted 23 May-25 May 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 22 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
