Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
22/0310Z from Region 2072 (S18W19). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 May,
24 May, 25 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
375 km/s at 22/1139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/2053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 22/1537Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 May, 25 May).

III. Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 111
Predicted 23 May-25 May 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 22 May 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05