Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 22/0514Z from Region 2736 (N08W62). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 342 km/s at 22/0129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 820 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (23 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (24 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 082
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 082/082/077
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  015/024-020/025-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/10
Minor Storm           40/30/01
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    75/70/20